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Is China facing an economic meltdown?

 Dr. P Pullarao

China is India’s biggest trading partner. Though we have a huge trade deficit, India gains enormously from trade with China.  India also gets political benefits since it reduces hostility with China. In the last 20 years, India has become  the  most important  economic partner of China in  South Asia.

This is despite the fact that China has close military and strategic ties with Pakistan. China always describes its ties with Pakistan as those of an “ all-weather friend “. In fact China has invested huge sums of money in Pakistan infra-structure and Pakistan hopes that China will continue to  do so. Pakistan feels very secure that its close ally China is a great economic super-power.

However in the last 15 days, the world witnessed with horror the stock market meltdown in China.  Within 15 days, nearly 3 trillion US dollars was lost in the stock market. There has been a flight of foreign capital from China since the last year.   All this is   happening because suddenly the economic fundamentals of the Chinese economy have become suspect.  The excess capacity which China built in every sector has led to stagnation  and  economic depression.

China produced more cement between 2011 -2013 than the USA produced in the entire 20th Century. This shows the scale of how much cement China used for projects. It now looks as if this over-investment has led to a   slow-down in the Chinese economy. The stock market   meltdown would have really become catastrophic had it not been for the highly un-orthodox intervention by the Chinese government, which bought stocks and indulged in other manipulations.

Impact of Chinese slowdown on India:

India imports   much more from China than it exports. But a slowdown in China would mean that the quantum of trade with China would be negatively affected. This will have some negative impact on Indian economy. But the recent stock market meltdown did not have as big an impact on India as was expected. While one cannot predict the future, the contagion effect of a Chinese economic slowdown or stagnation might not be as serious as was originally expected.

The flight of foreign   capital from China would mean that some of that foreign capital might come to India. Foreign MNCs will also try to relocate some of their plants to India to hedge their bets on China. Already, the manufacturing giant Foxxconn is setting up many plants in India.  So a slowdown in China might be a mixed impact on India.

The slowdown in the Chinese economy also means that China might not invest huge amounts in Pakistan and other countries.  There will be a slowdown in China giving away money to various countries.  Pakistan would feel very severely the economic slowdown in China. Its all-weather friend will be less rich and less generous.

The slowdown of the Chinese economy might also mean that commodities will become lower priced. This is good for India since India imports most of its oil and metals.  To what extent a Chinese economic slowdown will harm India is difficult to predict. The contagion effect of the Chinese   economic slowdown cannot be predicted. It also depends on how the European economies are doing and what is happening in the USA.

The Indian economy is not dependent on one country.  If the European economies are doing modestly well and the US economy also continues to pick up, then a Chinese slowdown will not be that harmful. But if all major economies suffer slowdowns, then definitely India will be negatively affected.

However from a strategic point of view, a slowdown in the Chinese economy maybe good for India.   China will become a little more realistic in is territorial ambitions and might not want to pick fights with every neighbor.

One can however say that continued slowdown of the Chinese economy will harm India since we have enormous trade with China. It is better that a military rival is doing well economically than poorly.  There is a greater degree of predictability when countries do well. We need predictable relations with China.

Dr P Pulla Rao is a Socio-political and Economic analyst

Courstey: http://www.wisdomblow.com/?p=6192

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Greek Financial crisis

Dr. P Pullarao

Greece is perhaps the oldest and greatest civilization of human. The Chinese and Indian civilizations and some South American civilizations have also been very old.  But Greece has been a continuous trend-setter of humanity. Greece is part of the 19 European nations union. They have a common visa and a common currency.  It is no longer a Greek crisis since the deadline has past.  Along with Portugal, France and Italy, Greece forms part of the Mediterranean nations.  They have no oil or major minerals and now all suffer from economic problems.  These countries are unable to avoid a large State benefits programs and a big state-employment sector and pension and socials services.  These 4 nations are now undergoing serious recession and   there is no visible light at the end of the tunnel.

In 2010, Greece fell into severe debt issues.  Greece took huge loans to meet its ever expanding needs. In 2010, Germany and other rich nations held imposed impossible conditions on Greece for repayment.  Greece agreed since it had a pro-Euro government. But the payments became impossible and now Greece is again in a critical economic condition.

While Greece is responsible for its financial mess, other European nations, the IMF and other multi-lateral funding agencies are also largely to blame. They readily gave loans decades ago to Greece thinking that a nation’s guarantees are safe. They did   not calculate that countries can also go bankrupt. Their terms for giving a bailout to Greece in 2010 were very harsh and doomed to fail. And hence such economic policies failed and Greece is back to a crisis.

In January, 2015, a left party the SYRIZA a won the Greek elections, stating that it will fight for change in economic terms imposed by the Euro-Union. The SYRIZA has been very firm.  While its strategy may boomerang eventually or fail, SYRIZA has been able to bring the world’s attention on the mischief done by the debtor-nations too. There is no doubt that there is a debate going on whether   the terms imposed on Greece in 2010 were right or morally correct.

The main problem for Greece is that the term imposed by the creditors makes it impossible for any economic growth. The terms imposed by the creditors seem to indicate that they do not want other debtor-nations in economic difficulties to follow Greece and fail. Greece has    “dare to fail “. If all other countries also took the Greek route and “ dared to fall “, then the entire  monetary system built up by Germany, the IMF and other such cash-surplus nations  will collapse. Therefore, the rich nations of Europe had vested interests in ensuring that Greece was made an example and harsh terms had to be imposed and had to serve as a warning to other debtor-nations, which were watching Greece and were tempted to flirt with failure.

The option to fail looks much easier for democratic countries in Europe than undertaking harsh reforms. Portugal is one nation which is not a large economy like France or Italy. Both France and Italy cannot afford to fail and other countries cannot afford to allow them to fail since they are too big.  Germany and the IMF particularly want to avoid further failures.  Many years ago, the same wealthy nations imposed very harsh terms on a failing small nation Cyprus and ensured that Cyprus implemented them. Now it is Greece’s turn.

Perhaps the world expected that at midnight on Tuesday the June 30, 2015, Greece will explode and disappear. Nothing like that happened. In retrospect, maybe the debtors of Greece like the IMF, Germany and other European countries wanted to frighten Greece to pay up. But their threats did not work.

Greece is one of the oldest countries and civilizations in the world. Alexander the great who conquered the known world 2000 years ago was a Greek. The greatest philosophers and intellectuals were Greeks. Aristotle, Socrates, Heraclitus and numerous others are still remembered for what they said or wrote 2000 years ago.

Ancient history tells s that Greece was about the same size it is today. Yet, it had vast influence and controlled the thinking of the world. Greece gave us the Olympics. Greece gave us the marathon.   Today Greece has only 11 million people and yet has 22 million tourists year. Greece is part of the European Union and its people have free access all over Europe.   Millions of Greeks have left Greece and are now settled across the remaining 18 countries of the European Union.

The Crisis

Like Portugal, Italy and France, Greece allowed high spending and huge budget t deficits.  This high spending by governments was way beyond the tax revenue.  Competitive politics made it necessary   for all political parties to expand populist policies and to promise everything the people wanted and then destroy the currency to meet it. Greece suffers from having a big elderly population, with huge pensions and very little tax contributions.   Greece suffers from the fact that millions of Greeks seek employment outside Greece.  Greece is also allegedly the worst country when it comes to pay taxes by its citizens. Greece has low tax compliance and high expenditures.

Oil-rich countries   can afford such low tax collections and big budgets as oil income takes care of everything. But Greece has no oil and very little mineral riches. This has created a situation whereby Greece kept borrowing all over the world. As on date, Greece as defaulted on an IMF loan. This is viewed as very serious in the financial world.

But there are other options. The Greek government seems agreeable to resigning and not clinging to office. This has made the task of the creditor nations very difficult. They will have to find a workable solution. There is a referendum in Greece on July 5, 2015.  The result of the referendum will also indicate how Greece and the creditor nations must proceed.

On visible outcome is there. You cannot impose harsh conditions on a nation and expect them to be implemented. Greece has perhaps helped all poorer countries   in that it had boldly opposed harsh conditions and “dared to fail “.

Dr P Pulla Rao is a Socio-political and Economic analyst

Restaurants vis-à-vis health

Sarvesh Kumar Tiwari

The Dalai Lama, when asked what surprised him most about humanity, answered “Man, because he sacrifices his health in order to make money. Then he sacrifices money to recuperate his health. And then so anxious about the future that he does not enjoy the present; the result being that he does not live in the present or the future; he lives as if he is never going to die, and then dies having never really lived.”

The above quote of His Holiness the Dalai Lama represents the true picture of our society today. The way of life has changed drastically since the rapid industrialization of the world post1950’s. These days a man has to deal with preservatives from the very beginning. Breast-feeding is giving way to various sorts of condensed milk and then there are various baby foods which are pushed down the baby’s throat by busy parents who don’t want to spend their precious time in mashing a wholegrain food cooked at home. The mention of the phrase food ‘cooked at home’ reminds me of a lady instructor I had while I was undertaking a diploma programme. ‘’She must be in her early 30’s and had a son who was 3 years old. Our classes used to start in the evening at around 7:30 and were generally over by 9:30. I did not notice it in the beginning but after some days a batch mate drew my attention towards the fact that every day at around quarter to nine her husband called and inquired regarding dinner. It was surprising to find out that eight out of ten times she would name a restaurant from where they could have their dinner. Only on Thursdays and on some other random day she would say that she had cooked at home or would ask him to prepare some lentils and vegetable and that she would roll out Rotis when she would return home. Some of us used to ponder over the plight of the child while the others joked about the ever increasing diameter of her waist.”

The above story is not a unique instance rather one can find similar circumstances in many households. Working couples often rely on restaurants for their meals. The food served by most of the restaurants are spicy, oily and such that the nutritional value which is the defining factor of food  is on the fringes. The system of regular inspection is in place but one hardly finds any instance in which a restaurant has been closed because of not adhering to the food safety rules. Thanks to the online rating mechanisms initiated by various online agencies and the food surveys conducted by various magazines that some restaurants tend to follow standard procedure or else we would have had no choices. Can there be a way by which healthy food could be procured from restaurants. Restaurants or any FMCG industry makes a lot of profit and if the government makes it compulsory for the restaurants to keep a few healthy food on their menu it won’t hamper their interest. It should be followed with more conviction at market places which are near schools and colleges. The government should impose a ban on fast food products in school canteens. Educative campaigns should be initiated by the Health ministry asking parents to avoid introducing children to fast food items. Children should be initiated into using indigenous food items at an early age so that they develop a taste and habit for those products which somehow or the other are healthier in comparison.

As if these problems are not enough, a friend of mine recounted a harrowing experience at a vegetable market in Delhi. He told me that, “I went to the market to buy vegetables very late that day and was surprised to see that the vendor was not throwing away the rotten tomatoes and so were the others, I jokingly asked whether he planned to use them. He smiled at me and told me that the restaurants queue up to buy those. I smiled in disbelief but then suddenly I saw the waiter of a restaurant where I visited frequently buying the rotten tomatoes from the nearby vendor”.

Food safety is an issue which has drawn attention of the masses ever since the Maggi fiasco but we need to investigate the other dormant issues like those discussed above if we want our next generation to be healthy.

“शरीरमाद्यम खलु धर्म साधनः”

I conclude the article with this Sanskrit couplet which highlights the importance given to health in ancient Indian philosophy. It says health is a must and one should not try to undertake arduous tasks which may affect his health and should keep his dietary habits in check.

Sarvesh Kumar Tiwari is Socio-cultural Writer

Courtesy : www.wisdomblow.com

"Politicians should avoid “business-stroke"

Dr. P Pullarao

Andhra Chief Minister   Chandra Babu Naidu,  Foreign Minister  Sushma Swaraj and  Rajasthan Chief  Minister Vasudnhara Raje all are suffering  from the same illness  ““ business-stroke “right now .

Sushma Swaraj  and Rajasthan Chief Minister’s careers  might be finished  if further revelations  come out from  businessman Lalit Modi. If Lalit Modi makes some more revelations, then both will go.

Chandra Babu Naidu is surrounded  by businessmen. There is nothing wrong with that. But  Babu should not  listen to their  advice and make them his closest aides. The problem with businessmen  is that they do not understand politics .. They simply feel that everything has a price.   But when you are dealing with people, price cannot be fixed.

The allegations against Chandra Babu Naidu about vote-buying would never have happened had he kept recently rich businessmen at a   little distance.  Sure, give them tickets to Parliament or the Assembly. But keep them at a distance.

Sushma Swaraj, Chandra Babu and Vasundhara Raje have definitely not read one of the stories by greatest English novels F. Scott Fitzgerald “ the Rich Boy  “.  Scott Fitzgerald famously  wrote

“ Let me tell you about the rich . They are different form you and me .They possess and enjoy early and it does something to them. It make them cynical while we are trustful. They think they are  better than we are .”

Lalit Modi is wealthy and he spends money . Naturally, SushmaSwaraj and VasundharaRaje were dazzled by the money spent. They enjoyed every bit of it. Lalit Modi did not spend money on them because he was a charitable person. He had his own objectives.

Similarly, Chandra Babu Naidu is surrounded by the rich as other   Andhra politicians earlier. They love the feel of wealth and when near wealth, they felt terrific. Remember that most politicians come from very humble backgrounds and when they see’ Lakshmi “, they get transported  to another world.

How did the businessmen earn their wealth?  That question does not arise.  The simple   answer is that he is rich and so must be intelligent. Since he is so generous, he is a nice person. Politicians in India lose office or go to jail only because of “business-stroke “. By having taken money or favours, the politicians cannot reject the rich donor….or he will be exposed.  That is what is happening to SushmaSwaraj and Vasundhara Raje.

Politicians forget some basic principles of politics .Elected representatives should serve as a bridge between people and government. But business tycoons, once elected, feel they need not associate with the public. Further, they feel they spent much money and won office. They realise that they will have to spend money again and why waste time when the voters have to be bought again ?

A number of MPs from  all parties  got tickets only because of their money   .  There is a political gap since they are not connected to people. This political gap eventually leads to defeats and scandals.

One of the richest people is   Savithri Jindal who was a Minister in Haryana. In her constituency, at least 35,000 people work for her.   Yet Jindal lost and came third in the election. People eventually get fed up and defeat the rich.

Politicians should realise that most scandals start with business people turned politicians . For businessmen, getting anything done through any means is okay. They are used to this philosophy of “gettingthingsdone by money “.  Usually, they follow a legal route. But when they become associated with politicians, they start trying to subvert the system and get an additional advantage by using money and politicians.

In most cases, no one ever gets caught. It is only when there is an aggrieved party that things come out in the open. In most scandals there is at least one dis-satisfied and angry participant.  Even in the Lalit  Modi case, from newsreports it isobvious that he was personally angry with the Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje.  Here one of the main actors ( Lalit  Modi ) in this  scandal-drama himself  spills   out secrets. Eventually, whatever happens toVasundharaRaje and SushmaSwaraj is difficult to predict. But surely, Lalit Modi hashimself signed his o wn arrest warrant.

This is also a warning to politicians that at some crucial stage a businessmen will cooperate with the  authorities to save his skin and he will be in trouble.

Politicians feel that money is needed for elections. Aside from elections, most of the money form business people goes into the private bank accounts and wealth of politicians .  It is  an easy way to earn money.  Corrupt politicians feel that they are giving a  gift of a Parliament seat . Why should they give it free? That is when the business folk come in.

Once a seat is sold to a rich man, then the eco-system around that politician starts to get corrupted and eventual downfall. Of course there are many clever politicians who have sold seats and yet survived. But now and then they get caught and they can never recover.

But the greatest punishment for a politician who fraternities with rich people  and gives s them seats in Parliament and legislatures is that their political party eventually gets destroyed. That happens slowly but surely. Take very intelligent politicians like Sharad Pawar. His party the NCP has stagnated. Thera are just too many rich people in his party.

A politician should  avoid  becoming close to any rich person. What F. Scott Fitzgerald said nearly a 100 years ago on the rich   is true today ….” The rich are not like you and me. They are different “.

Dr P Pulla Rao is a Socio-political and Economic analyst

Courtesy : www.wisdomblow.com

Sushma Swaraj : No secrets in this age

Dr. P Pullarao
Sushma Swaraj has been doing an excellent job as the Indian Foreign Minister. Despite initial discord with  Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Sushma  Swaraj has handled herself very well and ensured that she played a perfect role as Foreign Minister. She took to the job as a fish takes to water. She ensured that there were no problems with the PM and yet conducted herself  with great aplomb.

Narendra Modi has earned great praise for the conduct of foreign relations.  A good measure of this credit should go to Sushma Swaraj. Moreover Sushma maintained  excellent relations with the Opposition, particularly the Congress party. It was no secret that the Congress would have preferred L.K.Advani or Sushma Swaraj as Prime Minister rather than Narendra  Modi. It was well known that Sushma Swaraj maintained cordial relations with Sonia Gandhi.

Yet the recent political controversy about the alleged close  relations of Sushma Swaraj with Ex-Indian cricket boss Lalit Modi has led to the demand by Congress for the resignation and even a Supreme Court inquiry into the doings of Sushma Swaraj and misuse of office .  So much for maintaining good relations  with your opponent !   A good lesson for Sushma Swaraj.

Sushma Swaraj seems to have forgotten that there are no secrets in the world today. Greater  and mightier people than her like Sepp Blatter, the President  of FIFA  ( World Football association ) had to resign because secrets tumbled out due to emails, phone calls and the very easy ability to record conversations and then later retrieve them.  Sushma ji…there are no secrets.

Sushma Swaraj had obviously close relations with Lalit Modi. Both belong to Delhi. There is nothing wrong with that. There is also nothing wrong  that Sushma Swaraj’s daughter is doing legal work for Lalit Modi, since she seems to be a well  qualified lawyer. One of the qualification for a lawyer or any service  provider is good contacts and Sushma’ s daughter has everything. A lot of wrong doing is accepted in India .  It is only when politicians choose to point it out selectively that trouble begins.

Sushma Swaraj never imagined that the emails of an MP Keith Vaz in England to Lalit Modi and others would create enormous trouble for her and might cost her job and future too. Sushma might never have imagined that casual meetings in London would look shady and ominous.  Sushma would never also have imagined that the legal practice of her daughter would smear her.  Sushma would never   have imagined that her less visible husband would also create image problems for her.

It is not for me to comment whether there was any wrong doing. But the media had portrayed her actions as  wrong . Who can imagine that the distant emails of a British M.P. Keith Vaz  become a political danger for Sushma Swaraj ?  Strangely, Keith Vaz is a long time British  MP, who should know every well how  British tabloids chase scandal and wrong doing and get great glee in exposing them. Yet, Keith Vaz sent emails as if they were inaccessible . Keith Vaz mentioned the name of Sushma Swaraj and that has created a major scandal. Sushma Swaraj was foolish enough to think that secrets can be kept  by anyone.

Strangely , nearly a decade ago,  another  very smart Foreign Minister  Natwar Singh got into similar trouble and had to resign.  Natwar Singh had written a letter  to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein requesting that a quantity of oil  be released for the company that his son had an interest in. Natwar Singh never dreamt that this letter of his would be safe in  the archives of the Iraqi  Foreign Ministry and when the Americans invaded Iraq, it would be found. Along with millions of other documents , the Americans released them.  Natwar Singh had to resign in a blaze of controversy and his political  career ended.

The wise and clever Natwar Singh thought that such letters would be lost. He never imagined that the  Iraqi Foreign  Ministry was so stupid that they never destroyed  their secrets. The chances of Natwar Singh’s letter to Iraqi President. Saddam Hussein  would be found by an invading  USA army was perhaps a million to one. Yet that happened.

Sushma Swaraj never imagined that her meetings In a hotel allegedly with Lalit Modi would  be recorded and noticed. But they were recorded by the ubiquitous CCTV cameras and records kept by the hotel.

The danger for Sushma Swaraj is that more information  might come tumbling out. As it is, Sushma has now lost her political  clout. She had to be defended by the party and the government. She have now become the cynosure of the media and opponents. It is a great lesson to all politicians that they  must avoid any wrong or seeming wrongs at any time. If they occupy a future high office , then they are liable to blackmail .

Any phone conversation, any meeting or even a simple  conversation can come and haunt you.
The next few days will determine whether  Sushma Sharma will pay the same price that Natwar Singh paid by resignation or she will sail through this storm. In any event, there are no secrets in this age or there is no safe place to hide secrets. The best policy might be to operate in such a way that there are   no secrets. New skills have to be developed to meet the new challenges of the ” Age of no secrets “.

Dr P Pulla Rao is a Socio-political and Economic analyst

Courtesy : www.wisdomblow.com

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