Will Laloo crumble before Congress threat?

Dr. P Pullarao

The Congress Party has  publicly  embraced  Nitish Kumar as the Chief Ministerial candidate for Bihar. The Congress has made it clear that if Laloo Prasad Yadav does not join with Nitish Kumar, then  Congress will choose  Nitish Kumar. This is a  direct threat to Laloo Prasad that he cannot bank on the Congress Party .The Congress  party has come to the conclusion that Laloo Prasad is a decreasing force and that Nitish Kumar is a  better bet. The Congress Party feels that Laloo Prasad Yadav would have no alternative but to join Nitish Kumar or his voters will abandon him. In any event, an open threat has been given to Laloo Prasad Yadav. Will Laloo succumb to the threat or find a way out ?

The choices are very un-pleasant for Laloo Prasad. At the same time, Nitish and the Congress Party are gambling that Laloo will succumb to their threats. It might happen that Laloo Prasad will patch up. But it might also happen that Laloo might feel that it is better to take  a lonely road.

The coming elections in Bihar are becoming strange. Nitish Kumar is the Chief Minister  with the  help of his worst enemy  Laloo Prasad Yadav.  Nitish Kumar and Laloo Prasasd Yadav have become open enemies. . The famed English writer George Bernard Shaw    said “Politics makes strange bedfellows”.  He meant that enemies become friends suddenly. But two tigers or even two cobras cannot live in the same forest. When a cobra and mongoose fight, everyone knows the outcome. But when two political cobras of North India like Nitesh Kumar and Laloo Prasad fight, the outcome becomes interesting and un-predictable. Nitesh and Laloo are nearing 70 years and are now fighting their last battles to the finish.  Nitish and Laloo made moves as if they were friends. But their enmity came out.

Nitish Kumar and Laloo Prasad have been enjoying power since 1977. Laloo Prasad, his wife Rabri Devi and Nitish Kumar have ruled Bihar from 1980 for 30 years. After BJP scored a big victory in 2014 Parliament elections in Bihar, Laloo and Nitish Kumar felt to survive, they had to unite. Nitish resigned as Chief Minister of Bihar as he said the big loss to BJP was his fault. He appointed Jitan Ram Manjhi as Chief Minister. But Manjhi started growing politically and Nitish again replaced him in February, 2015 with Laloo’s help.

For some time, there was great optimism in Nitish Kumar’s camp after he became Chief Minister again in February, 2105   that Laloo will forget the past and support Nitish   during elections in September, 2015.  Since 1992, Nitish and Laloo are sworn enemies. Nitish is largely responsible  for Laloo’s failing political career and going to jail and presently  out on bail and banned from contesting elections.

The false friendly picture started changing when Laloo started changing his tune. Laloo said ex-Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi must be brought back to their front. This irritated Nitish endlessly. Then Laloo said there can be no pre-determined Chief Minister candidate from their front. Then Laloo started criticizing Nitish’s government. Nitish wanted full merger of his party with Laloo’s  Party. But Laloo now started talking of only alliances and not a   merger.

Sensing that Laloo might make a big fool of him, Nitish avoided addressing joint public meeting in Patna on April 19, 2015 saying he was not well. Then again, there was a meeting of Janata Parivar in Delhi when Nitish was there. But Nitish skipped the meeting saying he had an eye operation. On May 28, 2015, the senior most leader of Laloo’s party Raghuvansh Prasad Singh said Nitish can never be Chief Minister if their party was part of the alliance. This was a clear message to Nitish if there is an alliance, he cannot become Chief Minister.  On May 30, 2015, once again Nitish avoided addressing a joint public meeting in Patna with Laloo, saying he is ill.

Laloo Prasad does not want Nitish to become chief Minister again. For Nitish Kumar, the choice is very difficult. He has to sacrifice himself and support someone else. This is a shock for Nitish , since he humiliated himself before  the entire country by going to Laloo for support , hoping  he would forget  the past.

The proposed Janata  Parivar merger  is  never going to happen. Nitesh Kumar broke ties with the BJP in 2013 on issues of self-proclaimed principles, saying  he can never accept  Narendra Modi as a leader of his alliance.  But such principles are very costly in Indian politics. So Nitish is in big  trouble.

1. The long rivalry between Nitish Kumar and Laloo Prasad Yadav cannot be wished away. Such enemies come together when they hate a common enemy more.  But neither Laloo nor Nitish hates Narendra Modi more than they hate each other. They pretended to become   allies but they know that they are each others’ worst enemy. Modi is only a political enemy and not personal enemies as they are to each other.
2. The main issue is that neither does Laloo Prasad wants to see Nitish Kumar become Chief Minister of Bihar again nor does Nitish wants to see Laloo or his family members become powerful again.  If Nitish Kumar is ready to agree that someone other than him will become Chief Minister, then Laloo might agree for a joint fight . But Nitish Kumar does not want to   sacrifice his ambitions to become Chief Minister again. Laloo wants anyone other than NitishKumar .  Herein lies the problem.
3. Nitish Kumar still has a good 15 years of political life . He will be there longer than Laloo Prasad, who is in fragile health. Laloo’s children also do not seem to be shrewd enough to survive in Bihar politics without their father.

Latest status:

Laloo Prasad has succeeded in his ambition to totally humiliate Nitish Kumar. Nitish Kumar humiliated himself and requested Laloo for support to stay on as Chief Minister. This was after a period of over 22 years of open hostility.  Nitish cannot survive as Chief Minister if Laloo withdraws his support. Laloo might feel it is better to lose another election but ensure that Nitish Kumar is defeated and finished politically. The logic is that if Nitish becomes Chief Minister again, then Laloo loses permanently. So the better choice would be that Nitish lose. How does it matter to Laloo if BJP wins?

Whatever Laloo might say publicly about BJP and Modi, he will prefer that Modi wins and Nitish Kumar loses. Laloo has no personal enmity with Modi. But he has personal enmity with Nitish Kumar. A BJP victory in Bihar is no worry for Laloo as Minority voters will become stronger supporters. But if Nitish wins, Minority voters will drift to Nitish and Laloo will have nothing. Laloo would prefer BJP win rather than Nitish .

“Revenge is a dish best served cold “says many proverbs. Imagine the pleasure of Laloo if he can make Nitish look like a fool before the entire country and see that he is defeated. Laloo has Nitishat his mercy. It might even happen that Laloo might withdraw support to Nitish before the elections using some excuse.

Bihar predictions;

It will be most difficult for Nitish and Laloo to come together. It was Nitish who ruined Laloo’s career. To expect Laloo to support Nitish becoming Chief  Minister is impossible. Laloo Prasad might tie-up with Nitish Kumar, provided there will be a different Chief Ministerial candidate. That is an advantage for the BJP.

Conclusion: Laloo would like his party to emerge as a big political party and see that Nitish is not Chief Minister.  Nitish would like to see himself as Chief Minister or even the BJP take the job, but not Laloo . The Congress has no presence in Bihar. But at all costs, it would like to stop the BJP from winning Bihar. There are many months left and anything can happen.  But the odds look increasingly that Nitish might not emerge the victor in this election.

It is obvious that Laloo Prasad had cleverly planned a trap of giving initial support to Nitish  and then decided to defeat him.  Nitish like all clever people thought he was the only clever man. He tried to fool Laloo with smiles and secularism. But Laloo wants to finish him with smiles and sweet words. Usually when you lay a trap for others, you fall into it and Nitish fell into the deadly embrace of a political python. Once a python embraces you, there is no hope. But four months is still a long time and anything can happen.

The Congress   will insist that Laloo support Nitish Kumar. There are only two options before Laloo. One is that he agrees with the Congress and supports Nitish Kumar. The second is that Laloo calls the Congress’s bluff and throw the Bihar elections into total chaos. Both are equally possible.

Dr P Pulla Rao is a Socio-political and Economic analyst