Bihar’s Nitish Kumar in trouble

Dr. P Pullarao

Nitesh Kumar   is now friendless.  The proposed Janata Parivar merger is never going to happen. From the beginning, it was obvious that Nitish Kumar needed this merger to survive in politics   On the one hand Nitish Kumar broke ties with the BJP  not on personal issues, but on the  higher issues of self-proclaimed idealism and principles. Nitish  Kumar broke his alliance  with the BJP saying that he can never accept  Narendra  Modi as a leader of his alliance  and hence he  left the BJP. So far so good. . But such principles are very costly in Indian politics, as you will become dependent on un-principled politicians. So you end up being in trouble.

The 2014  Indian parliament elections showed that in Bihar ,in a triangular fight, BJP can triumph easily. Therefore simple arithmetic showed  that there must  be an alliance of all  anti- BJP “ secular forces’ . This meant that Nitish Kumar must  join hands  with his most persistent opponent  Laloo Prasad Yadav.  Laloo Prasad Yadav also faced a severe defeat  in the Bihar   2014 elections and has really nowhere to go. Logicall, Laloo  Prasad Yadav, Nitish Kumar , the Congress and the Left parties must  join together and   they would be in-vulnerable.

Logically, such an alliance w as ready for  the  forthcoming Bihar assembly elections in the next few months and `Modi  would be electorally finished .Suddenly, there sia  caneg in the entire picture.

1. Mulayam Singh, Laloo Prasad Yadav, Nitish  Kumar and others were to get together and form a grand Janata Party. The aim is to fight the BJP together in Bihar. But suddenly issues like symbol s and loss of separate identities in the states came up.
2. The long rivalry between Nitish Kumar and Laloo Prasad Yadav cannot be wished away. Such enemies come together when they hate a common enemy more.  But neither Laloo or Nitish cares  if Modi rules in Delhi as long as they rule in Bihar.
3. The other   factor in this equation is that neither does Laloo Prasad Yadav wants to see Nitish Kumar become the Chief Minister of Bihar again nor does Nitish wants to see Laloo or his family members become the Chief Minister again.  If Nitish Kumar is ready to agree that someone other than him will become the Chief Ministerial candidate, then Laloo might show enthusiasm for a joint fight. But Nitish Kumar does not show any enthusiasm to sacrifice his ambitions. Nitish wants to be chief Minister again. Laloo wants his own family to have the job or anyone other than Nitish Kumar. This is a fact of life which cannot be wished away. Herein lies the problem.
4. Mulayam Singh is now a relative of Laloo Prasad Yadav and there is no rivalry between them. Laloo has now limited ambitions and Mulayam knows he can never become the prime Minister. Mulayam Singh’s son is the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh. Laloo’s ambitious family is without any position of power.  Laloo’s family fully knows that  Laloo went to jail and their political drams were shattered only because of the enmity of Nitish Kumar.  Laloo cannot even contest elections thanks to the earlier enmity of Nitish Kumar.  Everyone in Bihar knows that Laloo’s family is dead set against allowing Nitish Kumar becoming the Chief Minister again. They know that will be the end of their political  ambitions.
5. Nitish Kumar still has a good 15 years of political life . He will be there longer than Laloo Prasad if one considers the fragile health of Lallo. Laloo’s children also do not seem to be cunning and shrewd enough to survive in Bihar politics. They cannot survive without their father.
6. In this cauldron of hate and friendship, we have former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi. Nitish Kumar replaced him and there is enmity between them.  But Laloo keep saying that they must bring back Jitan Ram Manjhi into their front. This is un-acceptable to Nish Kumar. Laloo uses this as an excuse to embarrass Nitish Kumar.

Latest status:

Laloo Prasad he succeeded in his ambition totally humiliate Nitish Kumar. Nitish Kumar had to eat the humble pie and request Laloo for support to stay on as Chief Minister. This was  after a period of over 20 years of open hostility.  It looks as if Mulayam Singh and Laloo Prasad had only one objective and that was to make Nitish Kumar dependent on them and humiliate him. This have done very well.  Nitish cannot survive as Chief Minister if Laloo withdraws his support.

1. In all probability, there will be no formal merger between Laloo’s party and Nitish’s party.  Even an alliance looks difficult.
2. In all likelihood, it might even happen that Laloo  Prasad might decide that it is better to have an alliance with Jitan Ram Manjhi and the Congress  and  Left parties and  ensure that Nitish becomes a lonely man .  Laloo Prasad might feel that it is better to lose another election but ensure that Nitish Kumar is defeated and finished politically. The logic is that if Nitish becomes Chief Minister again, then Laloo loses permanently. So the better choice would be that Nitish lose. How does it matter to Laloo ?
3. Whatever Laloo might say publicly about  BJP and Modi, he cannot care  what happens to Modi. But he will prefer that Modi wins and Nitish Kumar loses. Laloo has no personal enmity with Modi. But he has personal enmity with Nitish Kumar who humiliated him.

A BJP victory in Bihar  is no worry for Laloo. The Minority voters will become even stronger supporters. But if Nitish wins, the minority voters will drift away to Nitish  and Laloo will have nothing. Laloo can never in public that he prefers the BJP winning. But if he wants to survive the BJP must defeat Nitish.

It is becoming more and more obvious that Mulayam and Laloo now want to end Nitish Kumar’s political life. They have brought him to their  corner with promises. Now they will abandon him. Nitish will have lost everything. That is what will happen. If the merger does not happen, then Nitish Kumar will look foolish before the entire country.

“Revenge is a dish best served cold “goes many proverbs. Imagine the pleasure of Laloo if he can make Nitish look like a fool before the entire country and also se e that he is defeated and isolated. Laloo has Nitish at his mercy. It might even happen that Laloo might withdraw support to Nitish  before the elections using some excuse.

All this does not mean that the BJP will have it easy in Bihar. The election in Bihar is a toss-up. Anything might happen. But the odds look increasingly that Nitish  might not emerge the victor in this election.

Nitish has already got the message. He is already distancing himself from Laloo to save some of his prestige.  Anything might happen in the future But right now, it looks difficult for Laloo and Nitish to contest the elections together as real  allies.

Dr P Pulla Rao is a Socio-political and Economic analyst

Courtesy: http://www.wisdomblow.com/?p=6010